Weekly report 3: liquidity stage 1
This covers 26 October at 05:40 UTC to 2 November at 05:40 UTC. It’s measured against the baseline in post 14, using the same method as reports 1 and 2 apart from the wallet-count correction below. The treasury’s own trades are left out throughout, except where I say so.
The short version
• The position is still lowering trading costs. A 1 ETH buy costs 8.6% with it and would cost 10.6% without it. A 1 ETH sell costs 10.0%, or 13.5% without it.
• Costs are close to last week’s and mostly above the 5 October baseline, while the price remains about 22% below 5 October. Without our position, costs would be higher still.
• Trading stayed thin: 3.7 ETH in 49 trades, against 3.1 ETH last week and 18.0 ETH in week 1. More was sold than bought, 2.1 ETH against 1.6 ETH. One seller accounted for 71% of all selling. The closing price barely moved, from 0.0237 to 0.0238 ETH per million JUSTICE.
• Our seven purchases put 0.69 ETH through the pool, alongside 1.60 ETH from other buyers. The buy order is a sizeable part of this small market.
• After 0.043 ETH of fees, the position is 0.19 ETH behind simply holding the same tokens, against 0.20 ETH last week. Most of the decline from entry is still due to the price.
Price
0.0238 ETH per million JUSTICE, against 0.0237 at the end of week 2, 0.0412 when the position went in and 0.0304 on 5 October.
Cost to trade (price 0.0238, including the 1% pool fee)
Buy with 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH: 5.2% / 8.6% / 15.1%. Without our position: 6.4% / 10.6% / 18.5%.
Sell for 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH: 5.5% / 10.0% / 19.1%. Without our position: 7.2% / 13.5% / 26.5%.
Week 2 (price 0.0237): buy 5.3% / 8.7% / 15.2%, sell 5.5% / 10.0% / 19.2%.
5 October baseline (price 0.0304): buy 4.8% / 8.5% / 16.0%, sell 4.7% / 8.5% / 17.8%.
Our position is 26.8% of the pool’s active liquidity, the same as week 2 and up from 19.1% in week 1.
Volume and traders
Median daily volume: 0.02 ETH, against 0.38 ETH in week 2, 1.52 ETH in week 1, 1.39 ETH in the 30 days before 5 October and 0.018 ETH in the 90 days.
Daily volume over the seven days: 0.40, 0.01, 2.87, 0.42, 0.02, 0.02 and 0.00 ETH.
Total: 3.7 ETH in 49 trades. Buys 1.599 ETH, sells 2.135 ETH.
Trading addresses: 38 this week (15 sold, 26 bought, 3 did both), against 45 in week 2, 100 in week 1 and a median of 101 a week in the 30-day baseline. As in post 14, this counts the address that sent each trade.
Counting wallets that actually held JUSTICE, 10 sold and 8 bought, against the corrected week 2 counts of 13 and 11. Some trades move tokens for more than one wallet; for those I count the wallet that sent or received the most JUSTICE, excluding pools and bots that pass the tokens straight back into a pool. Eighteen trades worth 0.347 ETH only moved JUSTICE between pools or back into ours as liquidity, so there’s no wallet to count for them; they’re included in volume. The largest seller sold 1.51 ETH, 71% of all sells, and the four largest 92%. None of the Safe’s nine signer addresses traded in the pool, on either count.
The treasury’s seven purchases put 0.69 ETH through the pool this week, against 1.60 ETH from all other buyers. No other trades happened in the same blocks as our purchases.
One day accounted for 2.87 ETH of the week’s 3.73 ETH. With so little trading on the other days, I wouldn’t read a trend into the near-flat weekly close.
Correction to reports 1 and 2
My counts of wallets that actually held the JUSTICE were too high. They included addresses that never kept any JUSTICE: other JUSTICE pools, Uniswap’s v4 pool contract, and liquidity bots whose JUSTICE went straight back into our pool as liquidity. Without them, week 1 was 39 wallets selling and 31 buying, not 43 and 36, and week 2 was 13 and 11, not 16 and 14. Volume, trading addresses, the largest sellers’ shares and the signer check don’t change. This week’s counts use the corrected method.
Purchases (CoW TWAP)
21 of 28 daily parts have filled: 86.51 million JUSTICE for 2.226 WETH, an average of 0.0257 ETH per million against the cap of 0.0417. This week’s seven parts bought 31.43 million for 0.742 WETH, an average of 0.0236. 0.742 WETH is left for the remaining seven parts. The last one is due around 8 November.
The position (#1382472)
In: 97.87 million JUSTICE and 4.029 ETH, worth 8.06 ETH at the time.
Now: 128.80 million JUSTICE and 3.062 WETH, worth 6.12 ETH.
Uncollected fees: 0.99 million JUSTICE and 0.020 WETH, about 0.043 ETH.
Simply holding the same tokens would be worth 6.36 ETH. The difference after fees is -0.19 ETH.
The 10 ETH
Unchanged: 4.029 ETH went into the position and 2.968 ETH into purchases, 6.997 ETH in all. That leaves up to 3.003 ETH to match the purchased JUSTICE when buying ends, as AIP-20 sets out.
Everything else
The 59.65 ETH stake is now worth 59.75 ETH, so about 0.100 ETH of rewards so far. They stay in the Perpetual Fund until holders decide how returns are spent.
The 132.19 ETH in the Safe hasn’t moved.
The Safe made no transactions this week. The fallback handler is still Safe’s ExtensibleFallbackHandler, for the buy order. It goes back to CompatibilityFallbackHandler (0x3EfC…77f4) when buying ends.
The method is the same as in post 14 and reports 1 and 2, apart from the wallet-count correction above. The scripts are available on request, and anyone can rerun them. Thanks to innocent for checking report 2 against the chain. I’d still welcome a check from someone who voted against AIP-20.
Cheers,
Gabriel
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中文
每周报告 3：第一阶段流动性
覆盖时间：10 月 26 日 UTC 05:40 至 11 月 2 日 UTC 05:40。对照 14 楼的基准，方法与报告 1、2 相同，但钱包数量按下文更正。除特别说明外，所有数据均不计入国库自身的交易。
简要结论
• 仓位仍在降低交易成本。买入 1 ETH 的成本是 8.6%，没有我们的仓位则是 10.6%。卖出换取 1 ETH 的成本是 10.0%，没有仓位则是 13.5%。
• 交易成本与上周接近，大多数交易规模的成本高于 10 月 5 日基准；价格仍比当时低约 22%。没有我们的仓位，成本还会更高。
• 交易仍然清淡：本周 49 笔交易、3.7 ETH，上周为 3.1 ETH，第 1 周为 18.0 ETH。卖出 2.1 ETH，买入 1.6 ETH。一个卖家占全部卖出的 71%。收盘价格几乎没变，从每百万 JUSTICE 0.0237 ETH 到 0.0238 ETH。
• 国库的七次买入通过池子成交 0.69 ETH，其他买家合计 1.60 ETH。在这样小的市场里，买单占了相当大的比例。
• 计入 0.043 ETH 手续费后，仓位比单纯持有相同代币少 0.19 ETH，上周为 0.20 ETH。相比建仓时的价值，下降的大部分仍来自价格。
价格
每百万 JUSTICE 0.0238 ETH。第 2 周结束时为 0.0237，仓位建立时为 0.0412，10 月 5 日为 0.0304。
交易成本（价格 0.0238，含 1% 池子手续费）
用 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH 买入：5.2% / 8.6% / 15.1%。去掉我们的仓位：6.4% / 10.6% / 18.5%。
卖出换取 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH：5.5% / 10.0% / 19.1%。去掉我们的仓位：7.2% / 13.5% / 26.5%。
第 2 周（价格 0.0237）：买入 5.3% / 8.7% / 15.2%，卖出 5.5% / 10.0% / 19.2%。
10 月 5 日基准（价格 0.0304）：买入 4.8% / 8.5% / 16.0%，卖出 4.7% / 8.5% / 17.8%。
我们的仓位占池子活跃流动性的 26.8%，与第 2 周相同；第 1 周为 19.1%。
交易量与交易地址
日交易量中位数：0.02 ETH；第 2 周为 0.38 ETH，第 1 周为 1.52 ETH，10 月 5 日前 30 天为 1.39 ETH，90 天为 0.018 ETH。
七天每日交易量：0.40、0.01、2.87、0.42、0.02、0.02、0.00 ETH。
合计：49 笔交易，3.7 ETH。买入 1.599 ETH，卖出 2.135 ETH。
交易地址：本周 38 个（15 个卖出，26 个买入，其中 3 个两者都有）；第 2 周为 45 个，第 1 周为 100 个，30 天基准为每周中位数 101 个。与 14 楼一样，按发起交易的地址统计。
按实际持有 JUSTICE 的钱包统计，10 个卖出、8 个买入；更正后的第 2 周数字是 13 个和 11 个。部分交易同时为多个钱包转移代币，对这类交易，我只计入发送或收到 JUSTICE 最多的那个钱包，不把池子和立即将代币存回池子的机器人算作钱包。另有 18 笔交易、合计 0.347 ETH，只在池子之间转移 JUSTICE，或将其作为流动性存回我们的池子，因此没有钱包可计入；这些交易仍计入交易量。最大卖家卖出 1.51 ETH，占全部卖出的 71%，前四大卖家合计占 92%。无论按哪种方法统计，Safe 的九个签名地址都没有在池子里交易。
本周国库的七次买单在池子里成交 0.69 ETH，其他所有买家合计 1.60 ETH。与我们的买单处于同一区块的，没有其他交易。
其中一天的交易量就有 2.87 ETH，本周合计 3.73 ETH。其他日子交易太少，不能从本周几乎不变的收盘价判断趋势。
对报告 1 和报告 2 的更正
我统计的“实际持有 JUSTICE 的钱包”数量偏高，因为其中包括了一些从未留下 JUSTICE 的地址：其他 JUSTICE 池子、Uniswap v4 的池子合约，以及把 JUSTICE 立即作为流动性存回我们池子的流动性机器人。去掉这些地址后，第 1 周卖出的钱包为 39 个、买入的为 31 个（不是 43 个和 36 个）；第 2 周为 13 个和 11 个（不是 16 个和 14 个）。交易量、交易地址、最大卖家的占比和签名地址的检查结果都不变。本周的统计已采用更正后的方法。
买入（CoW TWAP）
28 份中已成交 21 份：用 2.226 WETH 买入 8,651 万 JUSTICE，平均每百万 0.0257 ETH，上限为 0.0417。本周七份用 0.742 WETH 买入 3,143 万，平均每百万 0.0236。剩余 0.742 WETH 用于其余七份，最后一份约在 11 月 8 日。
仓位（#1382472）
投入：9,787 万 JUSTICE 和 4.029 ETH，当时价值 8.06 ETH。
现在：1.2880 亿 JUSTICE 和 3.062 WETH，价值 6.12 ETH。
未领取的手续费：99 万 JUSTICE 和 0.020 WETH，约 0.043 ETH。
如果只是持有相同的代币：6.36 ETH。计入手续费后的差额：-0.19 ETH。
10 ETH 的用途
没有变化：仓位 4.029 ETH，买入 2.968 ETH，合计 6.997 ETH。按 AIP-20，剩余最多 3.003 ETH，在买入结束时与买到的 JUSTICE 配对注入。
其他
质押的 59.65 ETH 现价值 59.75 ETH，目前收益约 0.100 ETH。收益留在永续基金中，直到持有人决定如何使用。
Safe 中的 132.19 ETH 没有变动。
本周 Safe 没有任何交易。为执行买单，回退处理合约目前仍是 Safe 的 ExtensibleFallbackHandler，买入结束后会恢复为 CompatibilityFallbackHandler（0x3EfC…77f4）。
方法与 14 楼和报告 1、2 相同，只是按上文更正了钱包统计。脚本可应要求提供，任何人都可以重新运行核对。感谢 innocent 从链上核对报告 2。我仍然希望由一位对 AIP-20 投反对票的成员来核对这些报告。
祝好，
Gabriel