Weekly report 2: liquidity stage 1
This covers 19 October at 05:40 UTC to 26 October at 05:40 UTC. It’s measured against the baseline in post 14, using the same method as report 1. The treasury’s own trades are left out throughout, except where I say so.
The short version
• The position is still doing its job. A 1 ETH buy costs 8.7% with it and would cost 10.6% without it. A 1 ETH sell costs 10.0%, or 13.5% without it.
• Costs are higher than last week, and with our position they’re now slightly above the 5 October baseline for most trade sizes. The price is 22% lower than on 5 October, so the same ETH trade is a bigger trade for the pool. Without our position they’d be well above it.
• The market went very quiet during the mission vote: 3.1 ETH of trading, against 18.0 ETH in week 1. More was sold than bought, 2.3 ETH against 0.9 ETH, and the price fell from 0.0263 to 0.0237.
• Our purchases were a large share of a thin market: 0.71 ETH, against 0.86 ETH from all other buyers. The price fell anyway.
• After 0.033 ETH of fees, the position is 0.20 ETH behind simply holding the same tokens, against 0.14 ETH last week. As before, most of the fall in value comes from the price, not the position.
Price
0.0237 ETH per million JUSTICE, against 0.0263 at the end of week 1, 0.0412 when the position went in and 0.0304 on 5 October.
Cost to trade (price 0.0237, including the 1% pool fee)
Buy with 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH: 5.3% / 8.7% / 15.2%. Without our position: 6.5% / 10.6% / 18.6%.
Sell for 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH: 5.5% / 10.0% / 19.2%. Without our position: 7.2% / 13.5% / 26.6%.
Week 1 (price 0.0263): buy 4.0% / 6.9% / 12.9%, sell 4.0% / 7.9% / 16.3%.
5 October baseline (price 0.0304): buy 4.8% / 8.5% / 16.0%, sell 4.7% / 8.5% / 17.8%.
Our position is 26.8% of the pool’s active liquidity, up from 19.1%. It hasn’t grown; other liquidity has moved out of range as the price fell, so ours carries more of the load.
Volume and traders
Median daily volume: 0.38 ETH, against 1.52 ETH in week 1, 1.39 ETH in the 30 days before 5 October and 0.018 ETH in the 90 days.
Daily volume over the seven days: 1.51, 0.09, 0.09, 0.54, 0.08, 0.43 and 0.38 ETH.
Total: 3.1 ETH in 66 trades. Buys 0.859 ETH, sells 2.255 ETH.
Trading addresses: 45 this week (22 sold, 27 bought, 4 did both), against 100 in week 1 and a median of 101 a week in the 30-day baseline. As in post 14, this counts the address that sent each trade.
Counting the wallet that actually held the JUSTICE, 16 wallets sold and 14 bought. innocent counted 35 buyers for week 1 where I had 36, because some trades move tokens for more than one wallet. For those trades I count the one wallet that sent or received the most JUSTICE. The largest seller sold 0.71 ETH, 32% of all sells, and the four largest 84%. None of the Safe’s nine signer addresses traded in the pool, on either count.
The treasury’s seven purchases put 0.71 ETH through the pool this week, against 0.86 ETH from all other buyers. No other trades happened in the same blocks as our purchases.
The mission vote ran for most of the week and trading almost stopped while it did, so this week also says little about the trend.
Purchases (CoW TWAP)
14 of 28 daily parts have filled: 55.08 million JUSTICE for 1.484 ETH, an average of 0.0269 ETH per million against the cap of 0.0417. This week’s seven parts bought 31.00 million for 0.742 ETH, an average of 0.0239. 1.484 WETH is left for the remaining 14 parts. The last one is due around 8 November.
The position (#1382472)
In: 97.87 million JUSTICE and 4.029 ETH, worth 8.06 ETH at the time.
Now: 128.97 million JUSTICE and 3.058 ETH, worth 6.12 ETH.
Uncollected fees: 0.76 million JUSTICE and 0.015 WETH, about 0.033 ETH.
Simply holding the same tokens would be worth 6.35 ETH. The difference after fees is -0.20 ETH.
The 10 ETH
Unchanged: 4.029 ETH went into the position and 2.968 ETH into purchases, 6.997 ETH so far. That leaves up to 3.003 ETH to match the purchased JUSTICE when buying ends, as AIP-20 sets out.
Everything else
The 59.65 ETH stake is now worth 59.70 ETH, so about 0.052 ETH of rewards so far. They stay in the Perpetual Fund until holders decide how returns are spent.
The 132.19 ETH in the Safe hasn’t moved.
The Safe made no transactions this week. The fallback handler is still Safe’s ExtensibleFallbackHandler, for the buy order. It goes back to CompatibilityFallbackHandler (0x3EfC…77f4) when buying ends.
The method is the same as in post 14 and report 1. The scripts are available on request, and anyone can rerun them. Thanks again to innocent for checking report 1. I’d still welcome a check from someone who voted against AIP-20.
Cheers,
Gabriel
每周报告 2：第一阶段流动性
覆盖时间：10 月 19 日 UTC 05:40 至 10 月 26 日 UTC 05:40。对照 14 楼的基准，方法与报告 1 相同。除特别说明外，所有数据均不计入国库自身的交易。
简要结论
• 仓位仍在发挥作用。买入 1 ETH 的成本是 8.7%，没有我们的仓位则是 10.6%。卖出 1 ETH 的成本是 10.0%，没有仓位则是 13.5%。
• 交易成本比上周高。有我们的仓位，大多数交易规模的成本现在略高于 10 月 5 日基准。价格比 10 月 5 日低 22%，同样 ETH 金额的交易对池子来说更大。没有我们的仓位，成本会远高于基准。
• 使命投票期间市场非常清淡：本周交易量 3.1 ETH，第 1 周为 18.0 ETH。卖出多于买入，卖出 2.3 ETH，买入 0.9 ETH。价格从每百万 JUSTICE 0.0263 ETH 跌到 0.0237 ETH。
• 在清淡的市场里，我们的买单占了很大比例：国库买入 0.71 ETH，其他所有买家合计 0.86 ETH。价格仍然下跌。
• 计入 0.033 ETH 手续费后，仓位比单纯持有相同代币少 0.20 ETH，上周为 0.14 ETH。和上周一样，仓位价值的下降大部分来自价格，而不是仓位本身。
价格
每百万 JUSTICE 0.0237 ETH。第 1 周结束时为 0.0263，仓位建立时为 0.0412，10 月 5 日为 0.0304。
交易成本（价格 0.0237，含 1% 池子手续费）
用 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH 买入：5.3% / 8.7% / 15.2%。去掉我们的仓位：6.5% / 10.6% / 18.6%。
卖出换取 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH：5.5% / 10.0% / 19.2%。去掉我们的仓位：7.2% / 13.5% / 26.6%。
第 1 周（价格 0.0263）：买入 4.0% / 6.9% / 12.9%，卖出 4.0% / 7.9% / 16.3%。
10 月 5 日基准（价格 0.0304）：买入 4.8% / 8.5% / 16.0%，卖出 4.7% / 8.5% / 17.8%。
我们的仓位占池子活跃流动性的 26.8%，上周为 19.1%。仓位本身没有增加；价格下跌后，其他流动性移出了价格区间，所以我们的仓位承担了更多交易。
交易量与交易地址
日交易量中位数：0.38 ETH；第 1 周为 1.52 ETH，10 月 5 日前 30 天为 1.39 ETH，90 天为 0.018 ETH。
七天每日交易量：1.51、0.09、0.09、0.54、0.08、0.43、0.38 ETH。
合计：66 笔交易，3.1 ETH。买入 0.859 ETH，卖出 2.255 ETH。
交易地址：本周 45 个（22 个卖出，27 个买入，其中 4 个两者都有）；第 1 周为 100 个，30 天基准为每周中位数 101 个。与 14 楼一样，按发起交易的地址统计。
按实际持有 JUSTICE 的钱包统计，共有 16 个钱包卖出、14 个买入。innocent 统计第 1 周有 35 个买家，我的结果是 36 个，原因是部分交易同时为多个钱包转移代币。对这类交易，我只计入发送或收到 JUSTICE 最多的那个钱包。最大的卖家卖出 0.71 ETH，占全部卖出的 32%，前四大卖家合计占 84%。无论按哪种方法统计，Safe 的九个签名地址都没有在池子里交易。
本周国库的七次买单在池子里成交 0.71 ETH，其他所有买家合计 0.86 ETH。与我们的买单处于同一区块的，没有其他交易。
本周大部分时间都在进行使命投票，投票期间交易几乎停止，所以这一周同样很难说明趋势。
买入（CoW TWAP）
28 份中已成交 14 份：用 1.484 ETH 买入 5,508 万 JUSTICE，平均每百万 0.0269 ETH，上限为 0.0417。本周七份用 0.742 ETH 买入 3,100 万，平均每百万 0.0239 ETH。剩余 1.484 WETH 用于其余 14 份，最后一份约在 11 月 8 日。
仓位（#1382472）
投入：9,787 万 JUSTICE 和 4.029 ETH，当时价值 8.06 ETH。
现在：1.2897 亿 JUSTICE 和 3.058 ETH，价值 6.12 ETH。
未领取的手续费：76 万 JUSTICE 和 0.015 WETH，约 0.033 ETH。
如果只是持有相同的代币：6.35 ETH。计入手续费后的差额：-0.20 ETH。
10 ETH 的用途
没有变化：仓位 4.029 ETH，买入 2.968 ETH，目前合计 6.997 ETH。按 AIP-20，剩余最多 3.003 ETH，在买入结束时与买到的 JUSTICE 配对注入。
其他
质押的 59.65 ETH 现价值 59.70 ETH，目前收益约 0.052 ETH。收益留在永续基金中，直到持有人决定如何使用。
Safe 中的 132.19 ETH 没有变动。
本周 Safe 没有任何交易。为执行买单，回退处理合约目前仍是 Safe 的 ExtensibleFallbackHandler，买入结束后会恢复为 CompatibilityFallbackHandler（0x3EfC…77f4）。
方法与 14 楼和报告 1 相同，脚本可应要求提供，任何人都可以重新运行核对。再次感谢 innocent 核对报告 1。我仍然希望由一位对 AIP-20 投反对票的成员来核对这些报告。
祝好，
Gabriel