Edited 19 October after the week closed: final figures and a corrected largest-seller line. The changes are listed in the reply below.
Weekly report 1: liquidity stage 1
This covers 12 October at 05:40 UTC, when the position went in, to 19 October at 05:40 UTC. It’s measured against the baseline in post 14, using the same method. The treasury’s own trades are left out throughout.
The short version
- The position is doing its job: trading is cheaper with it than without it. A 1 ETH buy costs 6.9% now, against 8.3% without our position and 8.5% on 5 October.
- The price fell from 0.0412 to 0.0263 ETH per million JUSTICE. More was sold than bought: 11.3 ETH of sells against 6.7 ETH of buys, not counting ours. Most of the trading happened in the first four days, and it has been quiet since.
- After 0.026 ETH of fees, the position is 0.14 ETH behind simply holding the same tokens. Most of its fall in value comes from the price, not the position.
Price
0.0412 ETH per million JUSTICE when the position went in, and 0.0263 now. On 5 October it was 0.0304.
Cost to trade (price 0.0263, including the 1% pool fee)
Buy with 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH: 4.0% / 6.9% / 12.9%. Without our position: 4.7% / 8.3% / 15.7%.
Sell for 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH: 4.0% / 7.9% / 16.3%. Without our position: 5.0% / 10.4% / 22.4%.
5 October baseline (price 0.0304): buy 4.8% / 8.5% / 16.0%, sell 4.7% / 8.5% / 17.8%.
Our position is 19.1% of the pool’s active liquidity. The price is about 14% lower than on 5 October, so a trade of the same ETH size is a bigger trade for the pool, and that pushes costs up. With our position, costs are still below the baseline. Without it, selling would cost more than on 5 October.
Volume and traders
Median daily volume: 1.52 ETH, against 1.39 ETH in the 30 days before 5 October and 0.018 ETH in the 90 days.
Daily volume over the seven days: 5.1, 1.5, 7.2, 2.2, 1.0, 0.6 and 0.3 ETH.
Total: 18.0 ETH in 169 trades. Buys 6.7 ETH, sells 11.3 ETH.
Trading addresses: 100 this week (53 sold, 55 bought, 8 did both), against a median of 101 a week in the 30-day baseline. As in post 14, this counts the address that sent each trade.
Counting the wallet that actually held the JUSTICE, rather than a bot or router that sent the trade for it, 43 wallets sold and 36 bought. The largest seller sold 4.0 ETH, 35% of all sells, and the four largest 65%. None of the Safe’s nine signer addresses traded in the pool, on either count.
Over the last three days, other buyers bought 0.24 ETH and the treasury’s purchases came to 0.32 ETH.
No other trades happened in the same blocks as our seven purchases.
Some of this week’s trading was probably a reaction to the AIP-20 news, so one week says little about the trend.
Purchases (CoW TWAP)
7 of 28 daily parts have filled: 24.08 million JUSTICE for 0.742 ETH, an average of 0.0308 ETH per million against the cap of 0.0417. Each part bought more as the price fell, from 2.75 million to 3.93 million. 2.226 WETH is left for the remaining 21 parts. The last one is due around 8 November.
The position (#1382472)
In: 97.87 million JUSTICE and 4.029 ETH, worth 8.06 ETH at the time.
Now: 122.53 million JUSTICE and 3.219 ETH, worth 6.44 ETH.
Uncollected fees: 0.56 million JUSTICE and 0.011 WETH, about 0.026 ETH.
Simply holding the same tokens would be worth 6.60 ETH. The difference after fees is -0.14 ETH.
The 10 ETH
4.029 ETH went into the position and 2.968 ETH into purchases, 6.997 ETH so far. That leaves up to 3.003 ETH to match the purchased JUSTICE when buying ends, as AIP-20 sets out.
Everything else
The 59.65 ETH stake is now worth 59.68 ETH, so about 0.025 ETH of rewards so far. They stay in the Perpetual Fund until the mission vote.
The 132.19 ETH in the Safe hasn’t moved.
The only other Safe transaction this week was nonce 55, which switched Snapshot to approval voting for the mission vote. It moved no funds.
The fallback handler is still Safe’s ExtensibleFallbackHandler, for the buy order. It goes back to CompatibilityFallbackHandler (0x3EfC…77f4) when buying ends.
The method is the same as in post 14. The scripts are available on request, and anyone can rerun them. I’d still like someone who voted against AIP-20 to check these reports. If that’s you, reply here.
Cheers,
Gabriel
───
中文
10 月 19 日本周结束后修改：更新为最终数据，并更正了最大卖家一行。具体变动见下方回复。
每周报告 1：第一阶段流动性
覆盖时间：从 10 月 12 日 UTC 05:40 仓位建立起，至 10 月 19 日 UTC 05:40。对照 14 楼的基准，方法完全相同。所有数据均不计入国库自身的交易。
简要结论
- 仓位达到了目的：有它比没有它交易成本更低。买入 1 ETH 的成本现在是 6.9%；如果没有我们的仓位，是 8.3%；10 月 5 日是 8.5%。
- 价格从每百万 JUSTICE 0.0412 ETH 跌到 0.0263 ETH。卖出多于买入：不计我们自己的交易，卖出 11.3 ETH，买入 6.7 ETH。大部分交易发生在前四天，之后一直很清淡。
- 计入 0.026 ETH 手续费后，仓位比单纯持有相同代币少 0.14 ETH。仓位价值的下降大部分来自价格，而不是仓位本身。
价格
仓位建立时每百万 JUSTICE 0.0412 ETH，现在 0.0263。10 月 5 日为 0.0304。
交易成本（价格 0.0263，含 1% 池子手续费）
用 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH 买入：4.0% / 6.9% / 12.9%。去掉我们的仓位：4.7% / 8.3% / 15.7%。
卖出换取 0.5 / 1 / 2 ETH：4.0% / 7.9% / 16.3%。去掉我们的仓位：5.0% / 10.4% / 22.4%。
10 月 5 日基准（价格 0.0304）：买入 4.8% / 8.5% / 16.0%，卖出 4.7% / 8.5% / 17.8%。
我们的仓位占池子活跃流动性的 19.1%。现在价格比 10 月 5 日低约 14%，同样 ETH 金额的交易对池子来说更大，成本因此上升。有我们的仓位，成本仍低于基准；没有它，卖出成本会高于 10 月 5 日。
交易量与交易地址
日交易量中位数：1.52 ETH；10 月 5 日前 30 天为 1.39 ETH，90 天为 0.018 ETH。
七天每日交易量：5.1、1.5、7.2、2.2、1.0、0.6、0.3 ETH。
合计：169 笔交易，18.0 ETH。买入 6.7 ETH，卖出 11.3 ETH。
交易地址：本周 100 个（53 个卖出，55 个买入，其中 8 个两者都有）；30 天基准为每周中位数 101 个。与 14 楼一样，按发起交易的地址统计。
按实际持有 JUSTICE 的钱包统计（而不是代为发送交易的机器人或路由合约），共有 43 个钱包卖出、36 个买入。最大的卖家卖出 4.0 ETH，占全部卖出的 35%，前四大卖家合计占 65%。无论按哪种方法统计，Safe 的九个签名地址都没有在池子里交易。
最近三天，其他买家共买入 0.24 ETH，国库的买单为 0.32 ETH。
与我们七次买单处于同一区块的，没有其他交易。
本周部分交易可能是对 AIP-20 消息的反应，仅凭一周很难判断趋势。
买入（CoW TWAP）
28 份中已成交 7 份：用 0.742 ETH 买入 2,408 万 JUSTICE，平均每百万 0.0308 ETH，上限为 0.0417。价格下跌时每份买到的更多，从 275 万增加到 393 万。剩余 2.226 WETH 用于其余 21 份，最后一份约在 11 月 8 日。
仓位（#1382472）
投入：9,787 万 JUSTICE 和 4.029 ETH，当时价值 8.06 ETH。
现在：1.2253 亿 JUSTICE 和 3.219 ETH，价值 6.44 ETH。
未领取的手续费：56 万 JUSTICE 和 0.011 WETH，约 0.026 ETH。
如果只是持有相同的代币：6.60 ETH。计入手续费后的差额：-0.14 ETH。
10 ETH 的用途
仓位 4.029 ETH，买入 2.968 ETH，目前合计 6.997 ETH。按 AIP-20，剩余最多 3.003 ETH，在买入结束时与买到的 JUSTICE 配对注入。
其他
质押的 59.65 ETH 现价值 59.68 ETH，目前收益约 0.025 ETH，在使命投票之前留在永续基金中。
Safe 中的 132.19 ETH 没有变动。
本周 Safe 唯一的其他交易是 nonce 55，它把使命投票的 Snapshot 投票方式改为认可投票，不涉及任何资金。
为执行买单，回退处理合约目前仍是 Safe 的 ExtensibleFallbackHandler，买入结束后会恢复为 CompatibilityFallbackHandler（0x3EfC…77f4）。
方法与 14 楼相同，脚本可应要求提供，任何人都可以重新运行核对。我仍然希望由一位对 AIP-20 投反对票的成员来核对这些报告，愿意的请在此回复。
祝好，
Gabriel